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Monday, January 18, 2016

Not ready to panic about the market yet.

Ever since the year began, the stock market has been taking some hits. Just last Friday at work, I was looking up the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Every half hour, I was clicking the refresh button of my browser and I was watching the average drop 100 points.

All this just because the fed increased interest rates by .25%.

But I'm not ready to panic about the markets yet and I've got two reasons for it. First off is that I really don't have much money invested in the stock market. The second reason is that these drops aren't unprecedented. The last time our market had a correction was from August to September of last year. That was the last time the market was at 16,000.

We could be about to fall off a cliff. It might happen over the next few weeks or months but it hasn't happened yet. With our market at 16,000, our market is at about 87% of the all time high of 18,300 back in May of 2015.

To put things in perspective, the last two bubbles were the housing bubble and the tech bubble.

During the tech bubble, the high of 11700 of January 2000 fell to a low of about 7500 during October 2002. The low was 64% of the high.

During the housing bubble, the high of 14100 of October 2007 fell to a low of about 6600 during March of 2009. The low was 47% of the high.

The markets open tomorrow and I'll be watching it to see if we are headed off a cliff over the next few weeks. But I'm not going to worry about it now. I'll wait until the market falls another few thousand points before I'm ready to worry.

And should the market go below 8600, I can safely say the market took a worse hit than during the housing bubble collapse.

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