In the last few weeks, I've been hearing people counter this rule of thumb and dismiss it as a myth. The same people will also state that just because 50% of marriages fail, this doesn't necessarrly mean that your marriage will be subject to the same probability.
I do agree that one marriage in of itself will not be subject to a 50% probility of failure. If a man chooses to marry an ex adult film star who is on her 3 third marriage, has 2 children, and has a drug problem, there is a good chance that marriage will have a higher probability of divorce.
My concern is those who dismiss that 50% of marriages end in divorce as a myth. Typically, when they dismiss the myth of "50%", they do not provide a more accurate figure of what percentage of marriages end in divorce. If 50% is the wrong figure, what is the correct figure? Is it 40%, 43%, 38%, or 34%? Even if it is as low as 25%, that means that 1 in every 4 marriages end in divorce.
The problem is that this study is very hard to do. In order to get an accurate number, you would have to track every marriage from beginning to end to find the total number of marriages, the marriages that end in divorce, and the marriages that end with one or both partners dying.
The next best thing I can think of doing would be to take a period of time and compare the number of marriages for the year to the number of divroces for the year. Since I can't track individual marriages over a time period, I'll have to look at aggregate data over a time period.
For the 50% statistic to be a myth, I'll consider it a myth if the divorce to marriage ratio falls lower than 45% or rises higher than 55% within a year. Luckily, there is a fast easy place to find some stastics. The CDC has a set of marriage and divorce tables from 2000 to 2012. We will start with the most recent available year, 2012. On a side note, I have no idea why the center for disease control tracks marriage statistics. Maybe it is used to support STI statistics?
For 2012, the table shows a total of 2,131,000 marriages and a total of 851,000 divorces. 851,000 divorces divided by 2.131 million marriages results in a divorce to marriage ratio of nearly 40%. On the face of things, it looks like the 50% statistic myth is busted for 2012. The only problem is that the data for both marriages and divorces is incomplete. In 2012, the divorces table excludes information for the states of California, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Louisiana, and Minnesota. Take a look at the total population for marriages. The figure reads 313,914,040. The table for divorces reads a total population of 248,041,986. In order to get a more accurate marriage to divorce ratio, I need to have complete information for the divorce table. I would need to look up the population and number of divorces for California, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Louisana, and Minnesota then I'd have to add them to the data.
Instead of doing that, I can adjust the divorce table population and divorces proportionally. 313,914,040 divided by 248,041,986 equals 1.27. Again, this is not a perfect method but this is to get a good idea of the actual figure without researching all 6 missing states from the divorce table. After adjusting 2012 divorces for the missing data, the total number of divorces for 2012 is closer to 1,080,770 (851,000 X 1.27). This brings the divorce to marriage ratio closer to 50.71% (1,080,700 / 2,131,000). This would prove the 50% divorce statistic for 2012.
Using the same method, I'll calculate the ratio for 2000 to 2011 as well.
Here are the results.
| Year | Divorce to Marriage Ratio |
| 2012 | 50,54% |
| 2011 | 52,39% |
| 2010 | 52,62% |
| 2009 | 51,06% |
| 2008 | 49,47% |
| 2007 | 49,24% |
| 2006 | 49,53% |
| 2005 | 47,66% |
| 2004 | 47,77% |
| 2003 | 49,11% |
| 2002 | 49,34% |
| 2001 | 48,71% |
| 2000 | 49,14% |
Total Table
| Year | Total Population | Incomplete Population | Adjustment Ratio | Divorces & Annulments (incomplete) | Adjusted Divorces & Annulments | Total Marriages | Divorce to Marriage Ratio |
| 2012 | 313.914.040,00 | 248.041.986,00 | 1,27 | 851.000,00 | 1.076.998,50 | 2.131.000,00 | 50,54% |
| 2011 | 311.591.917,00 | 246.273.366,00 | 1,27 | 877.000,00 | 1.109.604,81 | 2.118.000,00 | 52,39% |
| 2010 | 308.745.538,00 | 244.122.529,00 | 1,26 | 872.000,00 | 1.102.831,89 | 2.096.000,00 | 52,62% |
| 2009 | 306.771.529,00 | 242.610.561,00 | 1,26 | 840.000,00 | 1.062.147,02 | 2.080.000,00 | 51,06% |
| 2008 | 304.093.966,00 | 240.545.163,00 | 1,26 | 844.000,00 | 1.066.973,47 | 2.157.000,00 | 49,47% |
| 2007 | 301.231.207,00 | 238.352.850,00 | 1,26 | 856.000,00 | 1.081.815,94 | 2.197.000,00 | 49,24% |
| 2006 | 294.077.247,00 | 236.094.277,00 | 1,25 | 872.000,00 | 1.086.156,61 | 2.193.000,00 | 49,53% |
| 2005 | 295.516.599,00 | 233.495.163,00 | 1,27 | 847.000,00 | 1.071.981,78 | 2.249.000,00 | 47,66% |
| 2004 | 292.805.298,00 | 236.402.656,00 | 1,24 | 879.000,00 | 1.088.718,13 | 2.279.000,00 | 47,77% |
| 2003 | 290.107.933,00 | 243.902.090,00 | 1,19 | 927.000,00 | 1.102.614,80 | 2.245.000,00 | 49,11% |
| 2002 | 287.625.193,00 | 243.108.303,00 | 1,18 | 955.000,00 | 1.129.875,27 | 2.290.000,00 | 49,34% |
| 2001 | 284.968.955,00 | 236.416.762,00 | 1,21 | 940.000,00 | 1.133.044,95 | 2.326.000,00 | 48,71% |
| 2000 | 281.421.906,00 | 233.550.143,00 | 1,20 | 944.000,00 | 1.137.495,68 | 2.315.000,00 | 49,14% |
Based on this data and calculations, I have to say that the general rule of thumb that 50% of marriages end in divorce holds up. The ratio never fell below 45%. During 2000 to 2012, the lowest the ratio ever got to was 47.66%. Those who dismiss that 50% failure ratio are simply splitting hairs according to this conclusion.
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